The Progressive Movement II: Initiatives and Referendums Discussion ?s at end The Progressive Movement II: Initiatives and Referendums пЃ¬ Roots of the Movement пЃ¬ How Initiatives Work пЃ¬ Perspectives on the Process вЂў Formal Mechanisms вЂў Political Realities Roots of the Movement пЃ¬ Coming to power in the wake of scandals at the turn of the century, вЂњProgressivesвЂќ were: вЂў Moderate Republicans who split with the rest of their party. вЂў Businessmen who wanted to bring technical expertise into government. вЂў Political reformers. Roots of the Movement пЃ¬ пЃ¬ After successfully prosecuting Abe Ruef, the boss of San Francisco, Hiram Johnson was elected governor in 1910. He brought direct democracy to the constitution in 1911: вЂў Initiative вЂў Referendum вЂў Recall Roots of the Movement Direct and Indirect Initiative States with initiative provisions States without initiative provisions (27) (23) Roots of the Movement пЃ¬ How does CaliforniaвЂ™s direct democracy differ from other states? вЂў Placing an initiative on the ballot is relatively easy here. вЂў CaliforniaвЂ™s initiatives are binding and the legislature cannot amend them. вЂў Especially since 1978, we use the process much more than most states. How Initiatives Work: Formal Mechanisms пЃ¬ Basic definitions. вЂў An initiative is a proposal for a new statute or constitutional provision that is wholly drafted by a citizen and voted on by the state electorate. вЂў A petition referendum delays and puts up for vote a law passed by the legislature and signed by the governor. How Initiatives Work: Formal Mechanisms пЃ¬ A compulsory referendum is a constitutional amendment or a bond that 2/3 of the Assembly and Senate put on the ballot. вЂў These are consensus issues that generate campaigns costing only $300,000 and pass 69% of the time. вЂў Initiatives are contentious issues that generate $7.4 million in spending on average and most of them fail. How Initiatives Work: Formal Mechanisms пЃ¬ пЃ¬ пЃ¬ пЃ¬ пЃ¬ Step #1: Circulation. All it takes is an idea and $200 to officially register to circulate an initiative for 150 days. 993. Confinement of Veal Calves and Pregnant Farm Pigs. Initiative Statute. FAILED to qualify. 994. Confinement of Pregnant Farm Pigs. Initiative Statute. FAILED to qualify. 1002. Referendum Petition to Overturn Domestic Partner Law. FAILED to qualify. (SA03RF0081) вЂњThe WorkerвЂ™s Compensation Reform ActвЂќ ADDED to Initiatives Pending with the Attorney General. Circulating: 25 Initiatives in circulation 4 Propositions qualified for the March 2, 2004, Primary Election ballot from www.ss.ca.gov How Initiatives Work: Formal Mechanisms пЃ¬ Step #2. Qualification. Requires signatures equal to X% of voters in the last gubernatorial race. вЂў Constitutional Initiative: 8% or 753,079 вЂў Statutory Initiative: 5% or 470,675 вЂў Petition Referendum: 5% or 470,675 How Initiatives Work: Formal Mechanisms пЃ¬ Step #3. Vote. It takes a simple majority to approve, and an initiative can only be undone by another init. How Initiatives Work: Practical Realities пЃ¬ First Law of Initiative Qualification: Without $1-2 million, you cannot get anything on the ballot, no matter how popular. вЂў Example. Even the furor over the killing of Polly Klass by career criminal Richard Allen Davis did not provide enough signatures to qualify 1994вЂ™s Proposition 184, вЂњThree Strikes and YouвЂ™re Out.вЂќ How Initiatives Work: Practical Realities пЃ¬ Second Law of Init. Qualification: If you have $1-2 million, you can get absolutely anything on the ballot, no matter how wacky. вЂў Example. Proposition 6, вЂњThe Prohibition of Horse Slaughter and Sale of Horsemeat for Human Consumption Act of 1998,вЂќ The Sad Eyed Arab... qualified and passed. Too Bad Nobody How Initiatives Work: Practical Realities пЃ¬ Big Money вЂў In 1998, there were a dozen initiatives. Total spending on them was $193 million, with $92 million spent on Prop. 5 пЃ¬ Money Leads to Doubt. вЂў Conventional wisdom is that campaign spending against an initiative has much more influence than spending in favor of an initiative. How Initiatives Work: Practical Realities пЃ¬ Election Trends. вЂў About two thirds of initiatives lose, but proponents are doing a bit better lately. вЂў The more people learn about an initiative, the less they like it: вЂў Only two initiatives have passed when they originally polled under 50%. вЂў Rule of thumb is that if an item doesnвЂ™t poll at 80%, leave it out of your initiative package Perspectives on the Process пЃ¬ Why do the вЂњpeopleвЂќ and lawmakers disagree? Two Constituencies Problem вЂў The Legislature is apportioned to represent residents. Only 16.2% had household incomes of $40-75,000, and 32.4% were Latino in 2000. вЂў The electorate for an initiative is voters. 36% middle class, 13% Latino in 2000. Perspectives on the Process пЃ¬ How do voters make their choices? вЂў Nobody reads the entire 350 page ballot pamphlet or initiative texts. вЂў But the big money spent on initiatives does provide political information. вЂў As UCSDвЂ™s Skip Lupia showed, people make decisions that reflect their true preferences by following cues from supporters and opponents. Perspectives on the Process пЃ¬ Is there any room for compromise? вЂў An initiative is a take it or leave it offer, leaving voters with only a choice between the status quo and the proposal. вЂў They are almost always policy changes too extreme for the legislature to pass. вЂў UCSDвЂ™s Liz Gerber showed that the threat of an initiative brought policy in line with peopleвЂ™s demands. Discussion Questions пЃ¬ пЃ¬ пЃ¬ Eugene Lee presents a typology of initiatives. Are some types more legitimate than others? Does the fact that all initiatives rely on an вЂњinitiative industryвЂќ of paid signature gatherers matter? Are voters sufficiently informed to make good decisions on ballot propositions. Do television ads hurt or help?